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The CIB approach


The CIB method is a proven cross-impact method which aims for a qualitative systems analysis of multidisciplinary topics (e.g. scenario construction). CIB consists of a thoroughly tested combination of expert discourse and analysis algorithm. The basic structure of a CIB analysis contains the following steps:

  1. An expert panel is assembled which covers the full spectrum of knowledge that is necessary to understand all relevant topics. The panel should also reflect expert dissent if relevant.

  2. The expert panel prepares a list of the most important system factors ("descriptors") and compiles all available information on the expected future evolution of the descriptors. A list of possible disturbing influences which may deflect the evolution is also prepared.

  3. The expert panel discusses the interdependencies between the descriptors in one or (usually) more workshops. The experts pass "cross-impact judgements" on interdependencies using a qualitative judgement scale (e.g. "strongly promoting influence" or "weakly restricting influence"). The set of all judgements defines an impact network.

  4. The consistent configurations of the impact network ("consistent scenarios") are calculated by the CIB algorithm. They reflect the systemic balance of influences of the network including all indirect effects and provide a set of plausible future system states.

  5. The expert panel discusses the results of the evaluation and prepares recommendations for the user of the analysis.
More information on the CIB approach offers Guideline No. 1.

News
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SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
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Version 4.11 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
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The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method... More
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The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method... More
Archive
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The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications... More