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This bibliography lists publicly accessible documents dealing with methodological aspects of the CIB method (section A) or describing CIB applications in various research fields (section B). The bibliography is based on personal communications about CIB related publications, regularly conducted internet searches, and own research. Although we took considerable effort to identify as much publications as possible this bibliography may be incomplete. Any hint about additional literature is welcome (=> Email).

A. Methodological publications

Kosow H. (2016): The best of both worlds? An exploratory study on forms and effects of new qualitative-quantitative scenario methodologies. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart.

Hybrid scenarios (i.e. combinations of qualitative and model-based scenarios) are a common tool for analysing human-environment systems. The dissertation investigates if and how CIB can be used to enhance traceability and consistency in hybrid scenario exercises.

Weimer-Jehle W., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kosow H, Naegler T., Poganietz W., Pregger T., Prehofer S., von Recklinghausen A., Schippl J., Voegele S. (2016): Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 111, 956–970. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.073. >>

The article shows how CIB can be used to analyze the uncertainty and interdependency of societal framework assumptions in model based energy scenario construction. By this the proposed concept of context scenarios can help to better address socio-technical issues in energy related future research.

Schweizer V.J., Kurniawan J.H. (2016): Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors. Environmental Modelling & Software, 79 (Mai 2016), 322-333, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014. >>

Schweizer and Kurniawan describe an approach for conducting multi-scale scenario analysis using a coupled set of CIB matrices, each representing one scale. The approach reduces analysis complexity and numerical effort of nested CIB analyses.

Kosow, H. (2015): New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios. Eur J Futures Res 3:16, DOI 10.1007/s40309-015-0077-6. >>

The author proposes traceability and consistency as quality criteria for integrative (combined qualitative-quantitative) scenario exercises. The application of the criteria is demonstrated on two CIB-plus-model scenario projects.

Weimer-Jehle, W. (2015): Cross-Impact Analyse [Cross-Impact Analysis, in German]. In: Niederberger, M./Wassermann, S. (eds.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Methods of expert and stakeholder inclusion in social science research], Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag: 17-34.

The article describes the application of CIB in expert discourses and its role in making the mental models of the experts explicit and discussible.

Lloyd E.A., Schweizer V.J. (2014): Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese, Vol. 191(10), 2049-2088. >>

Compares Intuitive Logics (a widely used traditional scenario method) and CIB with respect to the epistemic qualities of the scenario process and its results.

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S. (2013): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien [Context scenarios - a concept for addressing context uncertainty and context complexity in energy scenarios, in German]. TATuP 22(2), 27–36 >>

Based on Weimer-Jehle, Kosow (2011) this paper formulates the concept of CIB-based context scenarios in energy scenario analysis in detail, and connects the approach with the research conducted by Schweizer, Kriegler and O'Neill in climate scenario research (see below in section B).

Kemp-Benedict E. (2012): Telling better stories - Strengthening the story in story and simulation. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 041004 >>

This paper is a Perspective for the article of Schweizer and Kriegler (2012) (see below in section B). It discusses the possible benefits of CIB in constructing socioeconomic scenarios in climate change research.

Kosow, H. (2011): Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Seville (Spain), 12.-13.05. 2011 >>

Proposes CIB as a scenario construction method within the SAS-concept (story-and-simulation concept) in environmental scenario analysis.

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2011): Gesellschaftliche Kontextszenarien als Ausgangspunkt für modellgestützte Energieszenarien [Social Context Scenarios as a Starting Point for Model-Based Energy Scenarios, in German]. In: Dieckhoff C. et al. (Eds.): Energieszenarien - Konstruktion, Bewertung und Wirkung. KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe >>

The paper proposes the application of CIB-based "context" scenarios to derive consistent framework assumptions for model-based energy scenario analysis.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Properties of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. arXiv:0912.5352v1 [physics.soc-ph]. >>

A mathematical oriented contribution to CIB research. It investigates the mathematical properties of CIB matrices.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse [Generating Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, in German]. In: Gausemeier J. (Ed.): Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe Vol. 265, Paderborn, 435-454.

Compares CIB and Consistency Matrix, a traditional scenario method which has inspired the CIB method development.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Cross-Impact Balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis. Physica A, 387:14, 3689-3700. >>

In this paper CIB is seen as an algorithm analyzing dynamic networks and some correspondences to complexity research are described.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73:4, 334-361. >>

This is CIB's methodological basic paper. It explains the motifs for proposing a new method of scenario construction, describes the technical process of doing CIB, and analyzes the connections of CIB to the concept of balance of forces in dynamic systems research.

B. Reported CIB applications

in the fields of biotechnology, climate change, development policy, education, energy, health, information technologies, innovation, management, mobility, risk/security, societal change, sustainability, urban planning, waste, water and working world.


Schneider M., Gill B. (2015): Biotechnology versus agroecology - Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop. Science and Public Policy, DOI:10.1093/scipol/scv021 >>

Climate change

Haraguchi M., Liu R., Randhawa J., Salz S., Schäfer S., Sharma M., Shifflett S.C., Suzuki A., Yuan Y. (2015): Human Intervention in the Earth's Climate - The Governance of Geoengineering in 2025+. Global Governance Futures. >>

Schweizer V.J., O’Neill B.C. (2014) Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change 122, 431–445 >>

Wachsmuth, J. (2014): Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development. Climatic Change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1231-z >>

Schweizer, V.J.; Kriegler, E. (2012): Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 >>

Development policy

Balthasar D., Bowen H., Brandi C., Hamm K., Haring-Smith W., Turner G., Wang Y., Xu J. (2013): Envisioning New Partnerships For Africa’s Future: Making Global Governance Work in a Post-2015 World. Global Governance Futures. >>


Mphahlele M.I. (2012): Interactive Scenario Analysis Technique for Forecasting E-Skills Development. Dissertation. Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria (South Africa). >>

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2012): Aplicación de la Planeación por Escenarios en Unidades Académicas: Caso Programa de Administración Industrial [Application of scenario planning in academic units: Industrial Management Program Case, in Spanish]. Escenarios 10(1), 40-48. >>


Vögele S., Hansen P., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach. Energy. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.001. >>

Vögele S., Hansen P., Kuckshinrichs W., Schürmann K., Schenk O., Pesch T., Heinrichs H., Markewitz P. (2013): Konsistente Zukunftsbilder im Rahmen von Energieszenarien [Consistent images of the future within energy scenarios, in German]. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 3/2013. >>

Cheng H., Ferguson I., Guan T., Johnson T., Ma Y., Mao Z., Pence E., Wigand F. (2013): Energy governance outlook: Global scenarios and implications. Global Governance Futures. >>

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen Teile - Konsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und Wissenschaft [More than the Sum of Its Parts. Consistent Scenarios for the Consumption of Heat Energy as a Common Reference Point for Policy and Science, in German], GAIA 21/4, 290–299

Vögele S. (2012): Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen für neue Energietechnologien [Development of framework assumptions for new energy technologies, in German}. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 4/2012.

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Möglichkeitsräume des zukünftigen Konsums von Wärme [Future heat consumption - a contingency analysis, in German]. In: Gallego Carrera D., Renn O., Wassermann S., Weimer-Jehle W. (Eds.): Nachhaltige Nutzung von Wärmeenergie (Sustainable Heat Consumption). Springer-Vieweg, Heidelberg, Wiesbaden.

Aretz, A., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross Impact Methode [Cross-impact method, in German], in: Der Beitrag der deutschen Stromwirtschaft zum europäischen Klimaschutz. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster, G., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross-Impact Methode [Cross-Impact Method, in German]. In: Energiemodelle zum Klimaschutz in liberalisierten Energiemärkten - Die Rolle erneuerbarer Energieträger. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster G., Weimer-Jehle W. (2003): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios of a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis, 12:(1). >>

Förster, G. (2002): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios for a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Center for Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany. >>


Deuschle J., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Übergewicht bei Kindern und Jugendlichen - Analyse eines Gesundheitsrisikos [Obesity in children and adolescents - Analyzing a health risk, in German]. In: Benighaus L., Renn O., Benighaus C. (eds.): Gesundheitsrisiken im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs [Health risks and social discourse, in German]. Bremen: EHV Academicpress: 66-98.

Hummel E., Hoffmann I. (2016): Complexity of Nutritional Behavior: Capturing and Depicting Its Interrelated Factors in a Cause-Effect Model. Ecology of Food and Nutrition, DOI: 10.1080/03670244.2015.1129325. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Deuschle J., Rehaag R. (2012): Familial and societal causes of juvenile obesity - a qualitative model on obesity development and prevention in socially disadvantaged children and adolescents. Journal of Public Health, 20(2), 111-124. >>

Information technologies

Khan A., Pohle J., Lin R., Sandhu P., Oppenheim S., Shin T. (2015): Shared Responsibility - Towards more inclusive internet governance. Global Governance Futures. >>

Ehrhardt J. (2014): Realistische Entwicklungsszenarien einer digitalen und offenen Handelplattform für Cloud Services [Realistic scenarios of a digital and open trading platform for cloud services, in German]. Master thesis, Reutlingen University. >>

Abbassi P., Kaul M., Mohan V., Shen Y., Winkelman Z. (2013): Securing the net - Global governance in the digital domain. Global Governance Futures. >>


Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Fuchs G. (2010): Erstellung von Energie- und Innovations-Szenarien mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse: Internationalisierung von Innovationsstrategien im Bereich der Kohlekraftwerkstechnologie [Generating Energy- and Innovation-Scenarios using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis - Internationalization of Innovation Strategies for Coal Power Plant Technology, in German]. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, TU Graz, 10.-12.02.2010. >>

Fuchs G., Fahl U., Pyka A., Staber U. Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology. Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Fuchs G. (2007): Generierung von Innovationsszenarien mit der Cross-Impact Methode [Generating innovation scenarios using the cross-impact method, in German], in: Innovation und moderne Energietechnik. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.


Aschenbrücker G., Geiger R. (2015): Die Cross-Impact Bilanzanalyse als Instrument der Früherkennung [Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis as an early warning tool, in German]. Controller Magazin, May/June 2015 Issue 3, 47-52. >>

Vergara Schmallbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Duarte Acosta M. (2013): Aplication del Método Search para el Diseño de Escenarios Futuros en el Consultorio Empresarial de la Universidad de Cartagena (2012-2022) [Application of the method "Search" for Design of Future Scenarios in the Office Business Department at the University of Cartagena (2012-2022), in Spanish]. Prospectiva, Vol. 11(1), 40-49. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15665/rp.v11i1.26 >>


Knupfer M., Sprake D., Vagapov Y., Anuchin A. (2016): Cross-impact analysis of Vehicle-to-Grid technologies in the context of 2030. IX International Conference on Power Drives Systems (ICPDS), Perm (Russia). DOI: 10.1109/ICPDS.2016.7756682. >>

Risk and security

Asano T., El-Sayed A., Kaul K., Körner K., Liu W., Malik S., Nozoe M. (2015): The Future of Weaponized Unmanned Systems - Challenges and Opportunities. Global Governance Futures. >>

Kaukonen E. (2014): Pelastustoimen skenaariopäivitys [Rescue service scenarios, in Finnish]. Pelastusopisto - Tutkimusraportit 3/2014 [Reports of the Emergency Services College], Kuopio, Finnland. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M., Troppens, S. (2013), Scenario-based supply chain risk management to avoid drug shortages caused by external threats in the pharmaceutical supply chain, 20thEurOMA Conference, Dublin June 7-12, 2013. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M. (2013), Szenario-gestützte Identifikation von externer Bedrohungspotenzialen in der Medikamentenversorgungskette [Scenario-based identification of external threats to the pharmaceutical supply chain]. IPRI-Praxis No. 2, Stuttgart. => IPRI-Homepage

Societal change

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Kosow H. (2011): Konsistente Rahmendaten für Modellierungen und Szenariobildung im Umweltbundesamt [Consistent framework assumptions informing model- and scenario-analysis at the German Federal Environment Agency, in German]. Expert's Report for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), UBA-Texte 20/2011, Dessau-Roßlau. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G., Valdez Alejandre F.J. (2010): Análisis al plan national de desarrollo - una visión prospectiva [Analysis of the national development plan: a prospective vision, in Spanish]. XV Congreso international de contaduría, administratión e informática, México. >>

Sustainability (general)

Kemp-Benedict E., de Jong W., Pacheco P. (2014): Forest futures: Linking global paths to local conditions. In Katila P., Galloway G., de Jong W., Pacheco P., Mery G. (eds.): Forest under pressure - Local responses to global issues. Part IV - Possible future pathways. IUFRO World Series Vol. 32. >>

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9:4, 291-317.

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2007): Leitbild Nachhaltigkeit - Eine normativ-funktionale Konzeption und ihre Umsetzung [Model Sustainability - A normative-functional concept and its implementation, in German]. VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, Germany. >>

Urban planning

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2014): La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: El caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Columbia) [An application of urban scenario planning: The case of the Central Market of Cartagena (Columbia), in Spanish]. Rev. fac. cienc. econ. Vol XXII(1), Enero-Junio 2014, 23-33. >>


Zhang Y. (2014): Strategic scenario study on international cooperation of e-waste management and metal recycling. Master thesis, ETH Zürich, University Graz. >>

Meylan G., Seidl R., Spoerri A. (2013): Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 74, 8-19. >>

Meylan G. (2013): Integrating Stakeholder Perspectives into Policy Support of Municipal Solid Waste Management. Dissertation, ETH Zürich. >>

Saner D., Blumer Y.B., Lang D.J., Koehler A. (2011): Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 57, 67–77. >>


Assimacopoulos D., Kampragou E., Andreu J., Bifulco C., de Carli A., De Stefano L., Dias S. Gudmundsson L., Haro-Monteagudo D., Musolino D., Paredes-Arquiola J., Rego F., Seidl I., Solera A., Urquijo J., van Lanen H., Wolters W. (2014): Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale. EU project DROUGHT - R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical report no. 20, p. 17-22. >>

Miranda Sara L., Baud I. (2014): Knowledge-building in adaption management: concertacion processes in transforming Lima water and climate change governance. Environment & Urbanization, Vol. 26(2):505-524. DOI 10.1177/0956247814539231 >>

Uraiwong P. (2013): Failure analysis of malfunction water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand - Integrated mental models and project life cycle approach. Kochi University of Technology, Japan. >>

Kosow H., León C., Schütze M. (2013): Escenarios para el futuro - Lima y Callao 2040. Escenarios CIB, storylines & simulacin LiWatool [Scenarios for the future of Lima and Callao 2040. CIB scenarios, storylines and LiWatool simulations, in Spanish]. Scenario brochure of the Liwa project (www.lima-water.de). >>

Baltodano Fuentes A. (2012): Insumos para la definición de estrategias de gestión del recurso hídrico en zonas vulnerables a cambio climático: Percepciones y escenarios de iso del agua en Guanacaste, Costa Rica [Inputs for strategy design on water resource management in vulnerable areas to climate change: Perceptions and scenarios on water use in Guanacaste, Costa Rica]. Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación Y Enseñanza (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica. >>

John S. (2009): Bewertungen der Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Abwasserbetriebe Bautzen mit Hilfe der Szenarioanalyse [Using Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Demographic Change on the Wastewater Management Authorities in Bautzen, in German]. Dresdner Beiträge zur Lehre der betrieblichen Umweltökonomie 34/09, Universität Dresden. >>

Working world

Centre for Workforce Intelligence (2014): Scenario generation - Enhancing scenario generation and quantification. CfWI technical paper series no. 7. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G. (2012): Análisis prospectivo de las expectativas de Calidad de Vida en el Trabajo [Prospective analysis of expectations about the quality of life at work, in Spanish]. 3er Congreso Internacional de Contaduria, Administración e Informática Administrativa. Filosofía de la Organización. Morelia, Michoacán Mexico, 29 y 30 de Noviembre 2012. >>
Version 4.2 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method... More
The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method... More
The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications... More