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The CIB algorithm (1/4)


The aim of the CIB analysis is the construction of internally consistent assumption bundles in the context of scenario analysis. To this aim plausible configurations of the impact factor network consisting of mutually supporting assumptions must be identified.

CIB uses a pair-interaction system approach. Starting point is the identification of a set of factors ("descriptors") which characterize the system in a sufficient way for the purpose of a qualitative system understanding. The relations between these descriptors are described by a net of influences (Fig. 1).

Fig1 Fig. 1

The impact relations may be one-sided or reciprocal. An arrow directed from descriptor A to descriptor B indicates an impact on B, caused by A. As a whole the system will tend to a configuration in which the web of influences is balanced in an internally consistent way. The impact network and its behaviour can be described and analysed in a qualitative manner by a "cross-impact matrix".


>> Structure of a cross-impact matrix



News
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SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
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Version 4.11 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
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The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method... More
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The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method... More
Archive
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The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications... More