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understanding impact networks |
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The aim of the CIB analysis is the construction of internally consistent assumption bundles in the context of scenario analysis. To this aim configurations of the impact factor network with mutually supporting plausibilities must be identified.
CIB uses a pair-interaction system approach. Starting point is the identification of a set of factors ("descriptors") which characterize the system in a sufficient way for the purpose of a qualitative system understanding. The relations between these descriptors are described by a net of influences (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1The impact relations may be one-sided or reciprocal. An arrow directed from descriptor A to descriptor B indicates an impact on B, caused by A. As a whole the system will tend to a configuration in which the web of influences is balanced in an internally consistent way. The impact network and its behaviour can be described and analysed in a qualitative manner by a "cross-impact matrix".
>> Structure of a cross-impact matrix
| News |
In a project dealing with the conditions of sustainable heat consumption the interdependence of structural conditions, actor behaviour and consumer behaviour is analysed using the CIB method... More |
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A project of the Stuttgart Cluster of Excellence "SimTech" uses CIB as a method to integrate political, social and economical contexts into environmental simulations... More |
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In a project about obesity prevention the obesity risks of socially disadvantaged children and adolescents will be analysed using the CIB method... More |
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The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios will be developed using the CIB method... More |
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Version 3.2 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard Basic is available now... More |
| Archive |
The archive offers a compilation of older CIB notes on projects and publications... More |