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Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology

Gerhard Fuchs, Ulrich Fahl, Andreas Pyka, Udo Staber, Stefan Voegele, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

Abstract

The question why and how innovation occurs is a subject of hot debate in policy, science, and economy. We describe a judgmental approach to innovation systems research that accounts for the complexity and interdisciplinary character of innovation processes and policy impacts. An interdisciplinary expert panel developed a qualitative model of an innovation system for a set of five energy technologies. The modelís systemic implications are analyzed using cross-impact techniques. The findings offer reasons why technology characteristics influence innovation and diffusion prospects, why different technologies require different innovation policy measures, and why innovativeness is more robust for some technologies than for others.

Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008

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