Environmental simulations are important instruments to analyze environmental change, to analyse its causes and effects on regional and global levels and to test and to evaluate policies. These simulations are relevant tools for science itself as well as for policy advice.
The results of environmental simulation depend on their assumptions regarding (future) social contexts, such as population growth, consumer behaviour, technological development and diffusion, regulation and policies. Today’s environmental simulations do not always meet the complexity, the uncertainty as well as the qualitative nature of these social dimensions and their interactions. Often, there is an imbalance between in depth and state of the art environmental modelling and less profound and less elaborated approaches to social dimensions (which are e.g. integrated via single external parameters or via intuitive scenarios).
Interdisciplinary approaches are required to deal with the complex interrelations between environment and society more adequately. Such approaches need to link ‘hard’ scientific knowledge (e.g. physics, biology, chemistry) with knowledge of the social sciences (e.g. sociology, political and economical sciences). For that purpose, integrated assessment models (IAM) are developed to model and simulate environment and society as integrated systems. But these approaches have their own difficulties: knowledge from the natural sciences is simplified and social dimensions are represented only to the extent that they are quantifiable.
In this project, CIB is used as a method to integrate social contexts in environmental simulations. Via case studies, we analyse demand, potentials and pitfalls of this interdisciplinary approach and develop procedures and routines for its application in the field of environmental simulations.
Version 4.2 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method...
The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method...
The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications...